Important Information Left Out Of Wildomar’s Phone Survey Results?….

 

 

…THE ANTI-TAX CLIMATE ON NOVEMBER 6, 2012

Proposition 30 (Jerry Brown’s merged proposal)California Sales and Income Tax Increase Initiative (2012)
Date of Poll  Pollster  In favor  Opposed  Undecided  Number polled 
March 14-19, 2012  By GQR & AV for USC Dornsife/LAT  64%  33%  3%  1,500 
April 3-10, 2012  PPIC  54%  39%  7%  823 
May 14-20, 2012  PPIC  56%  38%  7%  2,002 
May 21-29, 2012  Field Poll  52%  35%  13%  710 

Proposition 38 (Molly Munger’s proposal)California State Income Tax Increase to Support Education (2012)
Date of Poll  Pollster  In favor  Opposed  Undecided  Number polled 
February 14-18, 2012  Field  45%  48%  7%  344 
February 17-19, 2012  Jim Moore[1]  31%  60%  9%  500 
February 17-19, 2012  Jim Moore[2]  17%  78%  5%  500 
March 14-19, 2012  By GQR & AV for USC Dornsife/LAT  32%  64%  4%  1,500 
May 21-29, 2012

The above numbers taken directly from Ballotpedia.org, which provides non-partisan and factual information on the various initiatives/propositions to be addressed by voters on the November 06, 2012 election.

Please click on the following link for a complete review:

http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Polls,_2012_ballot_measures

What is important to consider is the fact that the “lowest” percentage of opposition to either of the above tax measures is 33%, (the highest is 68%). That suggests to me is that there is a 33% “floor” of anti-tax voters throughout the State of California, which includes Wildomar, regardless of the issue. It would create a “ceiling” of 67%, the barest margin required to pass Measure Z.

As a result, the political climate for the passage of Wildomar’s Measure Z (a $28 per year parcel tax) will be impacted by its affiliation and association with these statewide measures, perhaps to the extent of dooming it’s passage regardless of any city-sponsored promotional activities.

Since I was in attendance at the presentation of the polling results, I don’t recall the Lew Edwards Group (“Edwards”) representative discussing the impact of the significant, potentially negative attention that will be drawn to all tax measures on November 06, 2012.

Neither do I recall any probing questions by the Wildomar City Council, including incumbents Bridgette Moore and Bob Cashman, as to the potential negative effect that a likely statewide anti-tax movement would have on Measure Z.

As a public service to my readers, I have requested a copy of the formal report to the City Council and Staff from Edwards, under the California Public Records Act to see if there was any discussion about the political climate, and if this was ever addressed by Edwards.

Rest assured, I will report the results and outcome of my request.

Comments can be made to zakturango@excite.com.

If my premise is true, then the proponents of Measure Z mustn’t make a single mistake, or leave any stone unturned, which may be already too late, since they didn’t heed the warning regarding the likelihood of opposition if they went forward with the $35,500 “information” campaign with their Oakland-based consultant.

If the City Council truly believed in the 77% results of the survey, they could have/ should have moved forward with their parcel tax in confidence, without the expenditure of the additional $35,500, or inciting overt opposition.

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